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If the market return is arbitrarily assumed to be normal, the second element becomes zero and the equation becomes an estimate of return relative to the marhet. Over the shorter time periods, if no strong opinion is held about market returns, the analyst could simply substitute, say, plus or minus one standard deviation. The opportunities to manipulate the Amended Market Model are expanded by its similarity to the sort of relative and absolute forecasts which analysts are already making. The conventional model is clumsy in this respect.
1 (March, 1968), pp. 29-40. 6. Friend, Irwin; Blume, Marshall. "Measurement of Portfolio Performance Under Uncertainty," American Economic Revzew (September, 1970), pp. 561-575. 7. Jensen, Michael C. "Risk, the Pricing of Capital Assets, and the Evaluation 0 f Investment Portfolios," J oumal oj Business, Vol. 2 (April, 1969), pp. 167-247. 8. Jensen, Michael C. "Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964," Journal of Finance (May, 1968), pp. 389-416. 9. King, Benjamin F. "Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Business, XXXIX, Part II (January, 1966), pp.
We have no quarrel with what he has said, but we do have some reservations about the model itself. Perhaps a good deal of the financial analyst's intuitive rejection of the academic model is a feeling that (1) the model is not expressed in terms with which the practitioner can easily identify and (2) the suspicion that academia is saying that the return from stocks is a result of the return of the market itself (Professor Jensen is careful to avoid this error in his paper). The truth, of course, is that market returns are simply the weighted average of the returns of stocks, and not the other way around.