Download A Continuous Time Econometric Model of the United Kingdom by Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman PDF

By Albert Rex Bergstrom, Khalid Ben Nowman

Over the past thirty years there was vast use of continuing time econometric tools in macroeconomic modelling. This monograph provides the 1st non-stop time macroeconometric version of the uk incorporating stochastic traits. Its improvement represents a massive leap forward in non-stop time macroeconomic modelling. The ebook describes the recent version intimately and, like prior types, it truly is designed in any such means as to allow a rigorous mathematical research of its steady-state and balance homes, therefore supplying a worthwhile payment at the ability of the version to generate believable long-run behaviour. The version is anticipated utilizing newly built targeted Gaussian estimation equipment for non-stop time econometric types incorporating unobservable stochastic developments. The e-book additionally contains dialogue of the applying of the version to dynamic research and forecasting.

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The “news” streams for example may represent interest rate 29 Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends rumours from the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England or the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board Meetings on monetary policy and long-term economic news representing monthly and quarterly economic statistics that all effect the yield curve. The arrival of each type of “news” is modelled by the innovations of Brownian motions, which may be correlated, while the impact of a piece of “news” dies away exponentially as the time since it was received increases.

See also Bergstrom [1966b, 1967] for some earlier prototype models. An interesting feature of the model was that it contained only one exogenous variable a simple time trend. The trend terms were allowed for the unobservable factors: technical progress, the growth of labour supply and growth in demand for exports. The model was based on extensive economic theory and had 35 key parameters, which comprised 16 long-run elasticities and propensities β, 16 speed of adjustment parameters γ and 3 trend parameters λ.

An interesting feature of the model was that it contained only one exogenous variable a simple time trend. The trend terms were allowed for the unobservable factors: technical progress, the growth of labour supply and growth in demand for exports. The model was based on extensive economic theory and had 35 key parameters, which comprised 16 long-run elasticities and propensities β, 16 speed of adjustment parameters γ and 3 trend parameters λ. 33) Continuous Time Econometric Model of UK with Stochastic Trends E = real exports I = real expenditure on imports S = stocks L = employment M = volume of money r = interest rate p = price level w = wage rate k = proportional rate of increase of fixed capital m = proportional rate of increase in volume of money t = time D = d/dt and 0 < β1 < 1, β4 > −1, 0 < β6 < 1, all other parameters positive (except possibly λ3 ).

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